Biden's Visit to Kyiv
I’m not a fan of Biden’s policies generally (especially economic; inflationary), and I partially blame his administration for the final stages of a possibly-inevitable confrontation in Ukraine which has killed many tens of thousands of people and is likely to kill many more (although the real failures there were in the 1990s, where the West largely beat up on a defeated enemy for a decade rather than trying to rapidly integrate them with the rest of the world.) I didn’t vote for him in 2020, and will not vote for him in 2024 (although in both cases I didn’t vote for anyone, as since I’m a Puerto Rico resident, I can’t vote for President or Congress…). I don’t think he’s the worst President we’ve ever had (and really, is probably broadly in the middle), but domestic US politics aren’t really my thing, especially as I’m now disenfranchised by residency.
However, going to Ukraine personally as he did recently was unquestionably brave and impressive, and it’s hard not to respect him more personally for doing it, as well as obviously great respect and appreciation for all the people who made the trip possible — US forces, Polish, and Ukrainian.
When I first saw the news, I was pretty confident the US would have deconflicted with the Russians. There is probably no net upside for the Russians in killing Zelensky at this point, so they’ve actively avoided a decapitation strategy — it would just escalate and also ensure an endless insurgency. There is certainly no upside for Russia in killing the US President (or even striking at him); it would lead to immediate and massive escalation for zero benefit (if Biden were killed, we have a clear line of Presidential succession, and there would only be a question of what degree of retribution.) I was glad to learn from the WH press conference that we had actually deconflicted with the Russians hours before (which is around the timescale I would have assumed; otherwise it might have been reasonable for the Russians to leak news, or create some other crisis elsewhere, to disrupt the trip without striking at Biden).
This visit definitely helps Biden for domestic politics, at least as long as the war in Ukraine isn’t an obvious quagmire. It deflects from and defuses any criticism of Biden’s administration or activities in Ukraine before the Russian invasion; it counters the “old, weak man” argument, and it creates a broadly-popular series of images to use over the upcoming campaign season. I’m not really looking forward to a 2 year political campaign, and am pretty happy campaigning hasn’t really started yet (I assumed it would have started already!), but I guess it’s inevitable.
I have no particular insight into the conduct of the war, or crystal ball about how long it will go in the future. I’d certainly be prepared for some frozen-war resolution, or escalation (but hopefully and likely not substantially beyond the region), or possibly a collapse. It’s less uncertain than it was in the first half of 2022, but still no specific timeline or resolution is obvious. Mostly I’m happy it doesn’t affect me — the US can sustain the current level of support indefinitely, and Europe probably can do, and the limiting factor is Ukraine and Russia’s willingness to have their people die, which unfortunately seems far from exhausted on either side.